Berlin Lab – Ageing and Migration

An ageing society

Germany is among the countries that is strongly affected by demographic ageing. This process is the result of longer life expectancy and a birth rate that has been significantly below replacement level since the 1970s. According to forecasts, the ageing of society will continue and intensify. The share of pensioners (currently 67+ years) will significantly increase from currently 33 percent to 43 percent in the best scenario and to 61 in the worst case (2070), according to latest population projection (Destatis 2025). Moreover, the number of people aged 80 and over – an important indicator when assessing future nursing care needs - will increase considerably, rising from 6.1 million in 2024 to around 8.5 to 9.8 million in 2050. According to the projection, the number of people of working age (20 to 66 years) will drop as the large cohorts of the baby boomer generation retire and are replaced by younger, smaller cohorts (2024: 51.2 million; 2070: 41,2 million in scenario with moderate migration).

The process of demographic ageing has already severe negative consequences which are expected to aggravate in the future. Already at present, Germany faces a significant labor shortage. While this trend has recently slowed down due to the economic crisis, experts see the shrinking pool of (skilled) workers as one of the key factors holding back economic growth. This labor shortage is particularly pronounced in some sectors and regions. Large cities such as Berlin are less affected by aging processes because they attract more young people. On the flipside, some rural regions are facing more pronounced aging – urban-rural differences are widening. Rural regions in particular have a great need for immigration, but this is where the greatest resistance to immigrants can be observed, and right-wing extremist parties are disproportionately successful, even in the suburbs of Berlin. Several studies already point to a crisis in nursing care. Studies have measured higher mortality rates as a result of a lack of nursing staff.

Other negative effects of the aging process mentioned in the literature include: a collapse of social security systems; a loss of innovative capacity; and an overrepresentation of the concerns of older people in politics and neglect of the interests of younger people. As a result, important issues for the future are not being adequately addressed. These challenges are leading to intense and controversial political debates. Possible solutions include further increasing the working life span, lowering pension levels, reducing benefits for illness and care, and increasing the labour force participation of women. The future shape of immigration to Germany is also the subject of ongoing debate.